Strategic Analysis and Decision Making Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2750 words

Strategic Analysis and Decision Making - Essay Example Such an ideal model of decision making also presumes that the decision maker is aware of all possible alternatives and that he or she decides subsequent to examining them all. A modern approach recognizes that decisions are made in an automatic, instinctive fashion. Specifically, image theory claims that people will take on a course of action that best fits their individual principles, current goals, and plans for the future. The decisions made in organizations can be distinguished as programmed -- routine decisions made according to preexisting guidelines -- or non-programmed -- decisions requiring novel and ingenious solutions. Decisions also are different with respect to the amount of risk involved, ranging from those in which the decision outcomes are moderately certain to those in which outcomes are extremely uncertain. Uncertain situations are expressed as statements of prospect based on either objective or subjective information. For the rational decision maker, the question is "What is the best answer" Rational decision analysis provides a precise method for choosing among alternatives based on their estimated values. The rational model requires the overt specification of the probabilities associated with choices and chances, as well as quantified payoffs for outcomes. For instance, consider the stock option decision tree given in figure 1.1. Here, an investor is considering buying an option on a stock with a current price of $100. The option itself has a price OP. There is a 50% chance that the stock's price will raise to $110, and a 50% chance that the price will fall to $95: - Current Stock Price = $100 - Option Price = OP - With P = .5, S = $110 - With P=.5, S = $95 The investor has two alternatives: Do not purchase the option (choice I), or purchase the option (choice II). Given the above assumptions concerning probabilities and payoffs, rational decision theory gives an exact method for ranking the alternatives. We calculate the expected value of an alternative as the product of its possibility and its payoff value. For the stock option case, we arrive at the following expected values. EV (I) = P (A) * V (A) = 1.0 * 0 = 0 EV (II) = P (B) * V (B) + P(C) * V(C) - OP = .5 * 10 + .5 * 0 - OP = 5 - OP The rational choice is to purchase the option if Option Price, OP, $5.We note that this approach formalizes just one aspect of the decision task, that is, choosing among the alternatives. The pattern does not provide exact methods for identifying problems or alternatives, nor for estimating those alternatives. The rationalization that results from this process is always the same: The choice has the highest estimated value. The rational decision maker does not abandon the trouble even if all outcomes have negative expected values. In that case, the decision maker selects for the "best worst" case. The model does not address the matter of generating additional alternatives. Still, rational

R&D Proposal TMGT421 (Vaccines for Children Computer Input Manual) Research Paper

R&D Proposal TMGT421 (Vaccines for Children Computer Input Manual) - Research Paper Example Parents, therefore, find themselves looking for their immunization records. We have adopted Vermont Immunization Registry (IMR) at the Family Medical Center, which is a powerful tool to ensure proper treatment and timely immunization. This has helped in saving many by ensuring that the right vaccine is administered to the children (Maciosek et al., 2006). The efficiency of the offices is also improved since the required time to gather review records of immunization is reduced. When there is a disease outbreak, it is very easy for public health departments to identify those individual at risk by the use of registry. Our healthcare facility is accredited with vaccines for children. Data input should be correctly done to be able to guide on the appropriate type of vaccine administered and the relevant time to vaccinate. If this is not achieved, there will be a loss of program, and services will not be offered to the public. The objective of using Vermont Immunization Registry (IMR) at Family Medical Center is to increase efficiency in accessing immunization documentation at the center. With an electronic health record system in place at the medical centre, physicians will be able to submit data to the Vermont Immunization Registry from the electronic data record system directly via the interface. This will be such a superb tool that will ultimately lead to reduced data entry, improve the accuracy of data, fulfill the requirements of data reporting, ensure faster delivery of data, promote timely vaccinations, quick updating of records, easy printing of reports, maintain vaccine inventories, flag contraindications, increase vaccination rates and ensure ultimate improvement of patient care (www.healthvermont.gov). The Vermont Immunization registry will be an exceptional tool to support health care practices at the centre in tracking vaccine information for children at the Family Medical Centre. It will allow the professionals at the